Tuesday, February 9
The polls have universally given this first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary to Bernie Sanders. Nate Silver has forecasted a win for weeks, giving the odds their highest projection at 99%. Pundits were writing the state off to Sanders even before Iowa, noting it is adjacent to the senator’s home state of Vermont. The demographics also favor Sanders with its mostly white composition. Gender also plays a role with males favoring Sanders almost three-to-one.
Interestingly, a high number of respondents who picked Sanders are basing their preference not on his “electibility” in the General Election but on a similarity in “values.” The opposite holds true for Clinton. Her supporters view her as the candidate most likely to defeat a GOP nominee. This choice would indicate an idealistic voter versus a practical one and follows the overall persona of each candidate. Sanders speaks of “revolution” while the more grounded Clinton calls for “pragmatic solutions.”
There’s also a fairly wide margin of Undecideds, which could indicate an extremely tight battle and a possible upset for Clinton.
Here’s a look at the polls.
CNN/WMUR Feb 4-8: Sanders +26
- Sanders 61% Clinton 35% ~ 21% Leaning toward someone/15% Undecided
Emerson Feb 4-7: Sanders +22
- Sanders 54% Clinton 32%
UMASS/7 News Feb 2-7: Sanders +16
- Sanders 56% Clinton 40%
ARG Feb 6-7: Sanders +12
- Sanders 53% Clinton 41%
Monmouth Feb 4-6: Sanders +10
- Sanders 52% Clinton 42% ~ 23% Leaning toward someone/17% Undecided
Boston Herald/FPU Feb 2-6: Sanders +7
- Sanders 51% Clinton 44%
Boston Globe/Suffolk Feb 2-4: Sanders +9
- Sanders 50% Clinton 41% ~ 8% Undecided