Census data is a trove of information. Put bits and pieces together and you create profiles, understand this nation’s needs and develop strategies for electoral politics. Take the veterans of the armed forces – they represent every state in the union, all genders, orientations, colors, incomes, emotional and physical states, religious beliefs and a high proportion of voting age citizens. Twenty million citizens of the U.S. are veterans of the U.S. armed forces.
There is also an intangible characteristic resulting from their actual service.
They have made a commitment to this country. Unlike their non-serving peers, duty to country carries a tangible experience; it is not some bloviating call to patriotism. There’s no way to fake one’s sacrifice or the sacrifice of their families.
Nevertheless, not all veterans perceive politics, policies and politicians through the same lens. What can be said without qualification though is this – veterans are not naive. Innocence is no longer a guiding force.
How might this bedrock of reality and the across-the-board representation affect the current presidential election?
We can start to answer this question by looking at the states with high veteran populations and coordinate these with current poll numbers. Is there any kind of correlation? Do large veteran citizens coordinate with pro-Clinton or pro-Trump numbers?
Let’s take a look, using the 2015 U.S. Census data as our source. Here’s a rundown of each state and its veteran population.
- ALABAMA – 376,525
- ALASKA – 70,370
- ARKANSAS – 229,261
- CALIFORNIA – 1,840,366
- COLORADO – 395,007
- CONNECTICUT – 209,882
- DELAWARE – 73,443
- FLORIDA – 1,538,636
- GEORGIA – 681,840
- HAWAII -112,217
- IDAHO – 121,172
- ILLINOIS – 699,522
- INDIANA – 441,925
- IOWA – 219,006
- KANSAS -204,538
- KENTUCKY – 303,167
- LOUISIANA – 293,317
- MARYLAND – 416,027
- MASSACHUSETTS – 368,593
- MICHIGAN – 648,273
- MISSOURI – 466,762
- MISSISSIPPI – 192,952
- MONTANA – 91,956
- NEW YORK – 868,764
- OHIO – 834,358
- OREGON – 313,261
- MAINE – 122,910
- MINNESOTA – 355,366
- NEBRASKA – 137,392
- NEVADA – 224,232
- NEW HAMPSHIRE – 109,398
- NEW MEXICO – 170,321
- NEW JERSEY – 416,037
- NORTH CAROLINA – 709,471
- NORTH DAKOTA – 52,035
- OKLAHOMA – 304,035
- OREGON – 313,261
- PENNSYLVANIA – 906,384
- RHODE ISLAND – 68,506
- SOUTH CAROLINA – 385,471
- SOUTH DAKOTA – 66,223
- TENNESSEE – 471,819
- TEXAS – 1,564,501
- UTAH – 140,942
- VERMONT – 46,355
- VIRGINIA – 718,034
- WASHINGTON – 575,746
- WEST VIRGINIA – 155,150
- WISCONSIN – 395,931
- WYOMING – 49,465
Source: Census Data: Veterans, 2010-2014
There are a dozen states with characteristics of high veteran populations (500,000 or more).
- California – 1.840,366
- Texas – 1,564,501
- Florida – 1,538,636
- Pennsylvania – 906,384
- New York – 868,764
- Ohio – 834,358
- Virginia – 718,034
- North Carolina – 709,471
- Illinois – 699,522
- Georgia – 681,840
- Michigan – 648,273
- Washington – 575,746
BLUE vs RED STATES
How do these 12 states correlate in terms of partisanship? Two recognized entities in the universe of political predictions can help answer that question: Nate Silver’s Five Thirty Eight and 270 To Win.
270 To Win Forecasts
Of these top veteran-heavy states, Clinton is polling strong in California (54%), Washington (53%), New York (50%) and Illinois (50%). She maintains single-digit leads in Virginia (48%), Pennsylvania (47%), Florida (46%), and Michigan (45%).
Trump is carrying Ohio (46%), Georgia (46%) and Texas (43%) with single-digit leads.
Clinton and Trump are tied in North Carolina with 45% each countered by a 10% third party preference.
These poll figures from 270 To Win include third party choices and include aggregate data from more than a dozen polls. Individual polls can be found here.
Nate Silver’s 538 Forecasts
As explained in his 9-26 Election Update, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight notes that the volatility of this election causes him to give Trump “somewhat better odds… than most other forecast models.”
In other words, FiveThirtyEight is playing it safe, though Silver still has Clinton ahead and winning by an ultra thin margin (51.5% – 48,5%).
In keeping with his cautious approach, 538 differs from 270 To Win in current state projections. One of the most dramatic differences is Florida, where 538 gives Trump a 58.8% chance of winning. The current tie in North Carolina is erased with a win for Trump. Likewise, 538 forecasts Trump wins in Texas, Ohio and Georgia.
Silver’s current projections show solid victories for Clinton in California, Washington, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
BATTLEGROUND or SWING STATES
Nate Silver’s 538 site provided projections within minutes of beginning this post. He sees Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina as key tipping states in that order.
The margin of a win/loss in any one of these battleground states could affect the outcome of the General Election, resulting in a Clinton or Trump victory. Nate Silver’s detailed analysis weaves in a number of factors other than poll data. The projection above is a snapshot in time – not a static view. He promises to update those figures daily through 8 November.
According to 270 To Win, seven of the dozen states identified with veteran voters will be battleground states (FL, GA, NC, VA, PA, OH, MI), liable to swing for either the Republican or Democratic candidate. This projection is based on less recent state-by-state polling as of 13 September 2016.
Click the map to create your own at THE VETERAN FACTOR
The numbers are meaningless. The numbers are everything. No one is placing huge bets on either candidate in the 2016 election. We are in a strange land, where precedence is overtaken by strange variables. Earth-shattering news goes by the wayside while muckraking and gossip make headlines. First-time voters are in revolt against a system that gave job security to their parents, Social Security to their grandparents, and the absence of a draft for themselves. Hate is digitized. Pariahs have come out of hiding. Lies by the Republican nominee are counted on a daily and hourly basis by journalists. Military leaders and high profile members of the intelligence community shun Trump and endorse Clinton. Foreign connections to Russia are flushed out of the Trump campaign. The GOP Congress maintains a suspect silence while the President and every leading Democratic member of Congress goes to bat for Clinton.
Amid this brouhaha, what are 20 million vets thinking?
Are they recalling how Donald Trump belittled Sen. John McCain? Will they consider his wild claim he’d shoot Iranian war boats “out of the water” for throwing birds at U.S. personnel or “bomb the s— out of ISIS” or give nuclear weapons to Saudi Arabia or bomb Iran and “take the oil,” or his own obsession with nuclear war dating back for 16 years?
I would bomb the s— out of ’em. I would just bomb those suckers. That’s right. I’d blow up the pipes. … I’d blow up every single inch. There would be nothing left.
Will veterans wonder about the fitness of a Commander-in-Chief who refused, repeatedly to dismiss the possibility of using nuclear weapons in the Middle East and Europe? How much confidence could they place in a man who is oblivious to the reality of the nuclear triad? And what about his disgraceful remarks to a Gold Star family?
A huge percentage of our twenty million vets are dispersed among the top battleground states. If even ten percent voted, they could shift the election.
As one person among 300 million U.S. citizens, I am grateful for these 20 million veterans. My hope is that they will individually and collectively do the right thing and continue to protect the people and interests of this country.
