There will be no closure to this nastiest of American Presidential elections until the votes are counted. (And let us hope that the final tally will be accepted by all.) Punctuating this reality is the last collection of swing state polls published by 270ToWin.
Hillary Clinton is tied with her opponent in Florida (29 EV) and North Carolina (15 EV). She maintains a strong 6-point lead in Michigan and a tenuous 4-point advantage in Pennsylvania. However, The Buckeye State stubbornly refuses to Go Blue. Ohio‘s poll numbers tilt toward the GOP candidate with a slim 3-point margin – exactly the same result as recorded six weeks ago.
The final swing state aggregate polls by 270ToWin show these figures:
- FLORIDA: Clinton 46% – Trump 46% |As of 11-7-16|Avg of ten polls|
- MICHIGAN: Clinton 48% – Trump 42% |As of 11-6-16|Avg of five polls|
- NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 46% – Trump 46% |As of 11-7-16|Avg of ten polls|
- OHIO: Trump 46% – Clinton 43% |As of 11-7-16|Avg of seven polls|
- PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 48% – Trump 44% |As of 11-7-16|Avg of ten polls|
Here is the set of initial polling results from 27 September for the five swing states:
- FLORIDA: Clinton 45% – Trump 43% |As of 9-26-16|Avg of five polls|
- MICHIGAN: Clinton 45% – Trump 41% |As of 9-15-16|Avg of four polls|
- NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 45% – Trump 45% |As of 9-26-16|Avg of six polls|
- OHIO: Trump 46% – Clinton 43% |As of 9-23-16|Avg of five polls|
- PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 46% – Trump 43% |As of 9-26-16|Avg of five polls|
In four of these states, the third-party vote is affecting the dominance of both candidates. This is particularly evident in Ohio where partisans of Gary Johnson, Jill Stein and “Others” on the ballot poll in double digits. In Florida, these numbers are anywhere from 4-10%.
The Libertarian and Green candidates are viewed as “protest votes” against the prevailing party nominees. If these numbers stick at the polling booth they could affect the 2016 election.