The cable news bobbleheads are about to pop off. Speaker Nancy Pelosi said something that blows a giant hole in their predetermined Democrat agenda.
No impeachment, said Speaker Pelosi with qualifications.
The bobbleheads are in an uproar. Katy Tur is sure something is wrong. What about precedent?, she asks. What about division in the caucus? It’s just not right, sighs Katy.
They don’t get it. Nancy Pelosi is the commander, the chess queen, the artful warrior. Every act and each word is carefully prepared, thoughtfully strategized and considered with long-range implications.
Here’s what the Speaker is calculating:
- She could move a vote to the House Floor for impeachment, and if she asked her caucus, they would vote “Yes.” She knows that when it went to the Senate for trial, it would go nowhere. The Republicans, who control the Senate, are slaves to Donald Trump. So yes, there would be a Pyrrhic victory with an impeachment vote but Trump would stay in office. And with 2020 upon us, both Trump and the Republicans would gloat unendingly. They would shame the Democrats for their challenge to king Trump and their cult base would hoot and holler and momentum for a Democrat in the White House would melt away like those glaciers in Antarctica.
- IF the Mueller Report were released to the public in full, and not redacted or summarized by AG Barr, and IF there was overwhelming evidence of crimes to cause a cataclysmic wave of outrage among the Republican voters, and IF the Senate GOP decided that yes, impeachment is a necessity – IF all those events occurred – and Trump was removed, then Pence would ascend to the Presidency. Pence would run on the 2020 ticket and likely garner support from the conservative GOP, the Bush wing, the never-trumpers and ex-Republicans. He could very well win.
- One more significant thing happens if the above scenario plays out and Trump is impeached. Nancy Pelosi would leave the House and assume the short-lived role of Vice President. That is a dead-end job. It’s like being kicked upstairs. She’d be a figurehead. More importantly, the House of Representatives would lose its commander, and they need Nancy.
- There are a number of other strategic repercussions of Speaker Pelosi’s “he’s not worth it” no-impeachment news. The 2020 Democratic candidates can discuss POLICY instead of Trump’s impeachment. Wouldn’t that be novel? Another cheerful side effect: Trump cannot use impeachment as a battering ram or as his martyr’s cross. Nancy took that move away. She’s so smart. And lastly, if the voters of America really, really want Trump impeached – and I mean ALL Americans, not just the loud newbies in the House and Auntie Maxine and Tom Steyer but Republicans and Independents and third parties – then Speaker Pelosi just gave them reason to scream for it. This statement will be a measuring stick. What is the level of outrage and who is screaming the loudest? If it’s partisan only, then she has proven her point. Impeachment is not worth it if the Republicans cannot be swayed.
- There is a light at the end of the tunnel. Trump WILL be gone sooner or later. And he will be arrested and charged with multiple crimes. I’m betting he will be convicted. He will pay for his outrages and that will be sweet revenge.