If there’s a fortune teller for the 2020 presidential election, you can find it in Ohio.
That state’s voters have the distinction of being the most accurate when it comes to casting a ballot for president.
Between 1900-2016, Ohio voters were accurate in 28 out of 30 elections for a 93.33% accuracy rate.
Of course, by Election Day, a party’s nominee has less chance to influence the vote. But Ohio’s uncanny knack of choosing the next POTUS does give it a certain status that candidates won’t find in Washington DC.
The District has the poorest record when it comes to choosing the next president. Its result is a lousy 42.86%, voting correctly in only six of the last 14 election cycles. It did not vote for president until 1964, and has voted for the Democrat in each election.
However if past is prologue, then the accuracy of a state’s voters would naturally influence the weight of state polls.
Campaign strategists looking at polling numbers in DC, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina know these voters have a poor record when it comes to electing the next president. If polls show their candidate trailing, they may not have as high a level of concern since these voters miss the mark about half the time.
On the other hand, polls from the states with the best records (Ohio, New Mexico, Nevada, Missouri and Illinois) will have greater weight. These five states have a proven record of electing the winner.
So next time you hear, “Polls don’t matter,” consider the state. If it’s a survey of Ohio voters, pay attention. If it’s from the nation’s capital or the four Southern states above, roll the dice. They’re wrong as often as they are correct.
Source: “Presidential voting trends by state”