Polls Are Out and The Losers Are…

With the release of the first DNC qualifying polls, it looks as if a handful of last month’s Dem debaters may have made both their debut and exit in Miami.

The CNN poll released on July 1 was followed today by the poll of Iowa caucus voters (Suffolk/USA Today) and Quinnepiac. Each is a DNC-approved poll and are opportunities for the June debaters to prove their mettle. According to debate criteria set by the DNC, candidates must show at least a one percent ranking in three approved polls by July 16.


Unfortunately, the candidates below could not meet that minimum one percent showing in the CNN poll:

  • Michael Bennett
  • John Delaney
  • Kirsten Gillibrand
  • John Hickenlooper
  • John Inslee
  • Seth Moulton
  • Tim Ryan
  • Eric Swalwell
  • Mariannne Williamson

The Iowa poll rejected most of the same candidates, refusing to award a single favorability point to:

  • Bill De Blasio
  • Kirsten Gillibrand
  • John Hickenlooper
  • John Inslee
  • Seth Moulton
  • Tim Ryan
  • Eric Swalwell
  • Mariannne Williamson

Delaney and Bennett squeaked by with a one percent vote each as did Julian Castro, Beto O’Rourke, Tulsi Gabbard and Andrew Yang. Sixty percent of the respondents said they may change their minds but it’s hard to imagine them switching to a zero percenter.


The Quinnipiac University poll mirrored the above surveys. These Democrats failed to make the one percent cut:

  • Michael Bennett
  • Bill De Blasio
  • John Delaney
  • Kirsten Gillibrand
  • John Hickenlooper
  • John Inslee
  • Seth Moulton
  • Tim Ryan
  • Eric Swalwell
  • Mariannne Williamson

Of this pack, five had not previously met the DNC fundraising quota:

  • Bennett
  • Delaney
  • Hickenlooper
  • Ryan
  • Swalwell

It is these five whose absence may shrink the July debate stage. (Moulton did not qualify in June.)


What is most surprising is the failure of Senator Gillibrand to register with voters in all three polls. She’s no Marianne Williamson but would seem to have better name recognition as a serving U.S. Senator since 2009.
gillibrand
Gillibrand will probably continue in the primaries (and the July debate) since her first quarter financials left her with $10 million in her campaign coffers.

All candidates still have a chance to gain that one percent placement in upcoming approved polls within the next two weeks. They can also match the second means for qualifying through grassroots fundraising. The FEC has yet to post second quarter campaign financials for all candidates. This will show whether the five met the fundraising goal.


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